WHO WILL WIN GOILALA BY ELECTION – NUMBERS BROKEN DOWN


In Goilala, there are 3 LLGs – Woitape, Guari and Tapini.

The most densely populated LLG amongst the 3 is Woitape LLG. And when it comes to politics in Goilala, Woitape LLG has time and again decided on the outcome of who wins the elections and who looses.

Population by LLG.
Population by LLG.

In one of my previous articles – POLITICS IN GOILALA – Voting Powers and Population I already broken it down the numberical strenghts and why the winner will always be from Woitape.

Now in this article, I will analyse the 33 candidates and their number grab and why who is who in their respective LLGs.

Out of the 33 candidates,  6 candidates are from Guari LLG – Mathew Poia, Alex Hoem Robert, John Zamoro, Magario Gaspa, Felix Aka Gitai and Joe Tamatai Manau.

Tapini LLG has has 7 – Titus Girau, Raymond Rex Kopa, Peter Nomai, Peter Keme Ellision, Alponse Moroi, John Kiar and Peter Ino.

Woitape LLG has 19 candidates – Evarista Suda, Eugene Aloysis, Bruce Mamando, Ajax Bia, John Kopa, Mathilda Koma, Cyprian Mang, William Samb, Fabiane Inne, Jimmy Gulolo, John Koga, Philip Fasi, John Mona, Camilo Esef, Felix Koma, Michael Stitt, Boniface Eve, Lawrence Ivoro, and Daniel Simana.

GUARI LLG. [4000 eligible voters]

In my opinion, per LLG respectively, Guari LLG will see a tassle between Mathew Poia and Alex Hoem Robert. Magario Gaspa will ride on the wave of Youth Power but that wont be enough to bring him into the business end of the game.

John Zamoro will take the second and third preferences from Mathew but not first. John might also grab some second preferences from Woitape LLG’s Ward 7 & 8 since he is mix parentage. But will the 2s and 3s be enough to hold him at bay? We will see. Felix is a surprise packet in this line up. If Alex Hoem uses his wife’s connections and family ties effectively, Felix will bow out of the race on the first elimination.

The winner out of this race in Guari will be a hard fight between Mathew and Alex Hoem but if education qualification does have an impact, Felix will give Mathew and Alex a run for their money.

My Tip: Alex will win the Guari LLG, sector of this By election if the Youth Power sticks with Magario. If they [youths] sway, and fingers crossed they go to Mathew, the winner wont be Alex.

TAPINI LLG. [7,000 eligible voters]
Tapini LLG is very interesting. I say interesting because we have a former Central Province Governor in the race. And comes from Tapini LLG. Alphone Moroi mentored and hand picked Titus Girau to be the District Administrator for Goilala. Alex Hoem was someone Moroi coached and mentored to be his choice in the Goilala Open seat.

The election in Tapini LLG will be between Alphonse, Raymond Kopa from Kerau, Peter Nomai also from Kerau, and Titus Girau.

The two densely populated wards in Tapini LLG are Ward 3 and Ward 4. With Tapini Urban [station] taking the 3rd ward to take note of.

Alphonse Moroi will collect handsomely across Tapini LLG. Not because he has has the money to burn or his campaign committee has done the job. This votes will be sympathetic. Back at their home base, Titus and Alphonse with Alex Hoem will split up the Jowa Loloipa, Pilitu votes, with Mathew Poia also having a grab of some first preferences votes from here too.

The big collectors in Tapini LLG will be, in my opinion, Raymond Kopa, Peter Nomai and Alphonse. If Titus Girau strategise well in Jowa and Pilitu areas, he will decide on Alphonse’s fate here and then. But with Alphonse’s popularity, Titus might have to do more than that.

My Tip: Alphonse will collect all across Tapini LLG. But if this votes will  be ones, is anyones guess. Raymond and Peter Nomai come from Ward 3 and 4 in Tapini LLG. This can be crucial determining factors.  With Moroi, Alex and Titus splitting up their base votes, the winner will be decided between Raymond and Peter Nomai. A tight finish is expected in this one with experience beating  Raymond for Nomai.

WOITAPE LLG [14,800 eligible voters]
Knowing the voting power of Woitape LLG, 20 candidates has registed to break this 14,800 amongst themselves. Looking through the list, Bruce Mamado, Jimmy Gulolo, Fabianne Inne, Alphonse Hega and William Samb grabs my attention without doubt.

Chirimes will lock  Fabianne. Jimmy and Alphonse with William will break even in Wards 7 and 8. While Bruce Mamado willl lock down Auga Dilava. But hey, Goilalas are known for maintaining the “Blood is thicker than water” statement so Boniface Eve, John Mona and Mathilda and Daniel Simana might spoilt the party for Bruce.

With Auga Dilava number depleted, the winner for Woitape LLG sector will be decided betwen Jimmy, William and Fabiane.

Jimmy is from woitape station. But his mother is from Kambisea/Keilape. Jimmy also has families in Chirime. So his collections of first choice will spread out while Fabianne will collect only in Chirime. William also will collect only in ward 7 while Alphonse will collect in ward 8.

My tip:  Amongst the 20, whoever can collect first preference votes across Woitape smartly, will see the business of the game. The person i see doing that is William Samb.

List
List

Note:
My Overall number distribution amongst candidates in this By election in Goilala will follow suit end of this week. In that article, I will give my tip.

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