POWER OF LPV SYSTEMS LAYS IN 2s & 3s – GOILALA OPEN – NGE2017.


National General Election 2017 in Papua New Guinea, using the Limited Preferential Voting system has given PNG people 3 choices to elect their Parliamentary leader who will represent them in the House Of Parliament for the next 5 years.

To do what? Goilala people will find out after 5 years starting 2018.

For now, let’s look at Goilala Open and how the 21, 516 eligible voters has casted their votes amongst the 30 candidates that contested these NGE2017.

After completion of FIRST PREFERENCE VOTES, [First Choice], this is how the ladder looks.
FinalCount35NGE2017GoiOpenSitting MP and Pangu Party candidate William Samb sits at No 1 with a commanding 5,097 votes following by National Alliance Alex Hoem Robert on 2287, and People National Congress candidate Bruce Mamando on 2206, Gabriel Mavai, an Indepedent on 1999, and former Member of Parliament Mathew Poia on 1946.

Quality Check is currently underway, and Elimination process will kick in to enable the Officials to reach the Absolute Majority figure of 10, 758 + 1 to declare the new MP Elect for Goilala Open.

My article here will digest how the elimination process will help move the numbers from the eliminated candidates and distribute them amongst the Top 6 candidates whose current votes are in the 4-digit totals.
EliminationNGE2017GoiOpen
I have catogorised the Rankings into Zero, Double Digit, 3 Digit and 4-Digit groups.

Gilbert Goi did not get any votes [ZERO Category] and so he goes without giving anyone anything.

Out of the Double Digit category which has a total of 321 votes to share, Camilo Esef, Theophilo, Augustine Mark, Tapini Libe, Philip Maip, Tosip will give most of their 2s and 3s to William, Bruce, Gabriel Mavai. Matilda. Aelai and Kiar would have their 2s and 3s shared between Alex, Mona and Poia where as Oresi will have his 2s and 3s shared between Nomai, William and Gabriel Mavai.

After this Double Digit group gets eliminated, expect Poia, Alex, Nomai, John Mona, Bruce and William Samb to have changes made to their Total figures. I see Alex and William collecting heavily from these group.

The 3-digit group has 5,995 votes amongs them to distribute and this figure is big enough to make changes to the Rankings if dominated by one candidate.

As it is, this 5,996 votes wont be distributed to just one candidate. These 5,995 votes will go all angles.

Kaita, Didei, Kopa, Ellison and Kita will make changes to Nomai’s total figure, while Ita, Henry Ivoro and Koma, will push Bruce, Mona, William and  Alex further up.

Jawai, Goilala Aloysis, Heni and Gitai will have most of their 2s and 3s shared between Poia and Alex Hoem. Bruce did collect well in Guari so he stands to collect from these candidates as well.

After the removal of Double and 3-Digit groups, the 4-Digit group will be rearranged. This is how i see the Top 6 after everyone is eliminated.

1. WILLIAM SAMB
2. BRUCE MAMANDO
3. ALEX HOEM
4. MATHEW POIA
5. GABRIEL MAVAI
6. PETER NOMAI
7. JOHN MONA

John Mona will squeeze his way into the 4-Digit group, while Bruce will swap second place with Alex who will get to the 3rd spot. Poia will also sneek into the 4th place, pushing Mavai down to 5th spot. Nomai sticks to 6th place and Mona will settle in the 7th place.

BUSINESS END OF THE GAME.
The margin between No.1 and No.2 will still be in Thousand+ votes. No.1 will increase his total votes. Difference between No.2, No.3, No.4 will be very close.

VERDICT
By the time we are left with 7 candidates, the Absolute Majority figure would have come down to 8,000 votes.

In my opinion John Mona holds the key to unlocking the “WHO IS THE NEW MP FOR GOILALA” mystery.

May The People’s Choice Win this tense Battle.