TROPIC AIR FLIES GOILALA BALLOT BOXES INTO PORT MORESBY – TODAY.


BREAKING: GOILALA OPEN BALLOT BOXES GETS FLOWN INTO PORT MORESBY TODAY.
Ballot Boxes - Flies to Pom

Confirmation from Woitape using the VSAT phone and Tapini [photo credit to Father Casmiro Kito – local priest from Tapini’s Catholic Church] and via social media posting has it that Goilala Open ballot boxes which were flown into Tapini station from the 3 LLGs after polling today is been flown into Port Moresby using one of the airlines operating out of Port Moresby.

Counting is confirmed to be held at Gordons Police barracks.

GOILALA OPEN ELECTION COUNTING HELD IN TAPINI SACRED HIGH SCHOOL? NO THANK YOU – Fr. BRIAN CAHILL.


NGE2017 COUNTING TO BE HELD IN TAPINI BUT NOT IN THE HIGH SCHOOL – FR. BRIAN CAHILL.
Tapini Scared Heart High School - Tapini
Sacred Heart HS is unable to provide the facility for use during the forthcoming election.

Our school will be operating one week into the voting period.
Diocesan and Education Dep policy requires us to maintain a distance and neutrality to the elections.

The school has been used and abused in the past providing for Government functions with the promise of payments that are never made.

The school will be in lock down mode during the mid-year break for students and staff to have a well-deserved break – school administration does not want to be burdened with hosting election activity.

The District Admin has an empty building at the top end of the station.

Tapini Station - Goilala District
Vehicles parked at Tapin station

My advice to the electoral team: get yourselves a gen set for power, dig yourselves some pit toilets, organize accommodation in the empty government houses on the station. Work with the CEO, Titus Girau.

Most importantly do something about the road. Good luck.

If this is too hard for you I suggest you do the counting at Goldie Barracks as per the last four elections.”

Fr Brian Cahill.

PERFECT SCORE – 100% CORRECT – MY PREDICTIONS BEFORE COUNTING – GOILALA OPEN BY ELECTION


In the lead up to the Primary counts, I boldly stated Alex Hoem Robert will win Guari LLG, while Peter Nomai will win Tapini LLG with William Samb shooting into the front for Woitape LLG.

And it seems my political analytical skills have not let me down as yet.

Now we enter the business end, the maker or breaker end of power play.

It will be interesting to note that since most of the voting across Goilala in the Primaries followed Family Tree lines, blood lines, and language boundaries, it is believed, 2s and 3s will follow suit.

So if we look at the TOP 10, pay close attention to the number of Kunimaipa, Tauwades and Fuyuges making up the final cut.

We have 2 Guari LLG candidates, 3 Tapini LLG candidates and 5 Woitape LLG candidates.

Do we see a pattern already?

So for Guari LLG, is all of Mathew Poia’s 2s and 3s headed for Alex Hoem?

Looking back at the recent past, 2012 NGE had Alex burn out his 2s and 3s. None of them or only a few went to Mathew Poia when Alex was eliminated.

So are we expecting a payback come this By Election?

Tapini LLG is interesting. Raymond and Peter are literally from the same area – Kerau side. Their eye-to-eye conversation aspect is unknown to me but I’d confidently say, if Raymond is to be eliminated, expect Nomai to make a move up the ladder.

Woitape LLG is known the Political Power broker time and time again when Election season pops up. So I expect this to happen yet again.

Funny thing is, Auga Dila voters don’t like their fellow Udab Savo (Upper and Lower Veitapu) folks. And Chirime over the range are cunning people. They will tell you one thing now and do the exact opposite of that next day.

So don’t expect major shifts in number sharing.

Fabianne will exhaust all his twos and threes while Mona and Mamando will most likely share their 2s and 3s depending on goes out first.

William will rely on good will from Jimmy’s voters as well as Inne and Mona with Mamando.

THE REAL POWER BROKERS.

In my opinion, I would conclude by pay close attention to the Top 20, which is the bottom 10 of the current Top 10.

These are the candidates from position 11 through to 20.

If anyone is to make some serious bets, sit back and assess the numbers that is been locked with the 11th-20th candidates.

Reason I say this is because apart from the bottom end candidates which will go first, the 11th-20th placed candidates will be the ones pushing the candidates above them up or down.

MY PREDICTION.
Alex will collect across Goilalas 3LLGs. So will Bruce who most likely will rise as well.

I expect Inne to either make it or break it for William but knowing William collected all across the 3LLGs and was labelled “Mr Steady Climber Samb” I will expect him to collect still.

LAST MAN STANDING.
Alex will give William a run for his Money.

But Mamando is still the dark horse.

TOP 10 AFTER COUNT 31 – FANE-TGM [AUGA DILAVA] – WOITAPE LLG – GOILALA OPEN BY ELECTION 2015


AFTER COUNT 31 – FANE-TGM – WOITAPE LLG – BY ELECTION GOILALA OPEN.

1. ALEX HOEM ROBERT – 1816 [NATIONAL ALLIANCE]
2. MATHEW POIA – 1626  [INDEPENDENT]
3. FABIANNE INNE – 1339 [INDEPENDENT]
4. JOHN MONA – 1263 [PEOPLE’S NATIONAL CONGRESS]
5. PETER NOMAI -1125  [INDEPENDENT]
6. RAYMOND KOPA – 1007 [INDEPENDENT]
7. BRUCE MAMANDO – 762 [INDEPENDENT]
8. PETER ELLISON – 604  [INDEPENDENT]
9. WILLIAM SAMB – 575 [PANGU]
10. LAWRENCE IVORO – 402  [INDEPENDENT]
11. BONIFACE EVE – 399  [INDEPENDENT]
12. FELIX KOGA – 316 [INDEPENDENT]

*** Note the rise of John Mona and Bruce Mamando with Felix Koga.

This is their turf and as such they rise. John Zamoro, Titus Girau, John Kiar with other table warmers are been slowly pushed out.

The guys who are consist in their Top 10 journey are Alex Hoem, Mathew Poia and William Samb. It seems these guys will see the end part of the game and decide the fate of the new MP for Goilala District .

TOP 6 AFTER BOX 5 COUNT – GOILALA OPEN BY ELECTION 2015


 This is the standing after the count of BOX 5 from Guari LLG. There are 3 LLGs in Goilala – Guari, Tapini and Woitape.

1. Alex Hoem (NA) 859
2. John Kia (IND) 311
3. Mathew Poia (IND) 293
4. Titus Girau (IND) 197
5. John Zamoro (IND) 181
6. William Samb (PANGU) 113

Counting will start again today at 8am and end at 12 for lunch and resume at 1pm to 4pm before night shift takes over for 6pm to 11pm rooster.

As updates become available, we will keep this Blog updated.

#ByElection2015-GoilalaOpen

GOILALA OPEN BY ELECTION – TOP 10 – AFTER FIRST PREFERENCE COUNT. [My Opinion]


Politically, I cannot grade myself up in the high or rather top end of the scale. Hence my comments and opinions must not be seen as accurate and absolute. Obviously I’m just a minor, trying to make an impression at this arena.

My Top 10 candidates after the First Preference Vote count will be as follows:

1. Peter Nomai
2. Alex Hoem Robert 
3. Bruce Mamando
4. Matilda Koma
5. Cyprian Mang
6. Mathew Poia
7. Jimmy Gulolo
8. William Samb
9. John Mona
10. Alphonse Hega

The 11th through to 20th placing will be taken up by Felix Gitai, Michael Stitt, Daniel Simana, Boniface Eve, Titus Girau, Alphonse Moroi, Peter Ellison, Raymond Rex Kopa, Fabianne Inne,

The other 11 unnamed here on my list are obviously on first round of elimination.

GROUNDS.
In the Tauwade speaking Goilala tribes, Peter Nomai stands tall amongst the other candidates. Tapini LLG has 7000 eligible voters hence Peter commands are very healthy support base. Raymond Kope and Peter Ellison will give Peter a good run but Nomai will edge out top ahead still.

In the Kunimaipa speaking Goilala tribes, Mathew Poia, Alphonse Moroi, Felix Gitai, Alex Hoem Robert, Titus Girau and John Jamoro will split and tear 4000 eligible voters amongst themselves. The survivor in this battle will be Alex Hoem Robert followed by Mathew Poia and Felix Gitai and Titus Girau and Alphonse Moroi lagging behind respectively. Mathew by this time around is reached him prime.

And Felix Gitai seem very much confined to the upper Kunimaipa section of Guari LLG. Titus Girau also is concentrated around the Jova Loloipa and Toloro area as well. Alphonse Moroi will have to perform a miracle to unsettle the popularity Alex Hoem is enjoying right now in the Lower Kunimaipa area.

With 14800 eligible voters at their disposal, I see William Samb giving Matilda, Jimmy Gulolo and Cyprian Mang with John Mona a head start.

The dark horse in Fuyuge battle is Bruce Mamando since this is where he has been basing out of, since coming to Goilala. Michael Stitt, Aphonse Hega, Fabiane Inne, Daniel Simana and Boniface Eve will make up the bottom end of this battle.

Bruce will give Matilda Koma and John Mona with William Samb a very good run for his money in this one. And if nature permits, Bruce can cause an upset in Woitape LLG.

COUNT SET TO START TODAY – GOILALA OPEN BY ELECTION 2015


In Brief..

Updates coming through confirms counting is set to start at 8am today.

Briefing was done yesterday and so all is set to go.

Electronic counting system will be used, which was confirmed by reports from Admin College this morning. So this cuts loose the notion of foul play and corrupt intention already.

Morning sessions will go from 8am to 4pm. Evening sessions will go from 5pm to 11pm.

Counting will go for a week + a day or two.

So we expect to know our new MP come Tuesday next week.

Writs are expected to be returned 13th August 2015 hence all formalities has to be made prior to that date.