NGE2017 COUNTING TO BE HELD IN TAPINI BUT NOT IN THE HIGH SCHOOL – FR. BRIAN CAHILL.
Sacred Heart HS is unable to provide the facility for use during the forthcoming election.
Our school will be operating one week into the voting period.
Diocesan and Education Dep policy requires us to maintain a distance and neutrality to the elections.
The school has been used and abused in the past providing for Government functions with the promise of payments that are never made.
The school will be in lock down mode during the mid-year break for students and staff to have a well-deserved break – school administration does not want to be burdened with hosting election activity.
The District Admin has an empty building at the top end of the station.
My advice to the electoral team: get yourselves a gen set for power, dig yourselves some pit toilets, organize accommodation in the empty government houses on the station. Work with the CEO, Titus Girau.
Most importantly do something about the road. Good luck.
If this is too hard for you I suggest you do the counting at Goldie Barracks as per the last four elections.”
And it seems my political analytical skills have not let me down as yet.
Now we enter the business end, the maker or breaker end of power play.
It will be interesting to note that since most of the voting across Goilala in the Primaries followed Family Tree lines, blood lines, and language boundaries, it is believed, 2s and 3s will follow suit.
So if we look at the TOP 10, pay close attention to the number of Kunimaipa, Tauwades and Fuyuges making up the final cut.
We have 2 Guari LLG candidates, 3 Tapini LLG candidates and 5 Woitape LLG candidates.
Do we see a pattern already?
So for Guari LLG, is all of Mathew Poia’s 2s and 3s headed for Alex Hoem?
Looking back at the recent past, 2012 NGE had Alex burn out his 2s and 3s. None of them or only a few went to Mathew Poia when Alex was eliminated.
So are we expecting a payback come this By Election?
Tapini LLG is interesting. Raymond and Peter are literally from the same area – Kerau side. Their eye-to-eye conversation aspect is unknown to me but I’d confidently say, if Raymond is to be eliminated, expect Nomai to make a move up the ladder.
Woitape LLG is known the Political Power broker time and time again when Election season pops up. So I expect this to happen yet again.
Funny thing is, Auga Dila voters don’t like their fellow Udab Savo (Upper and Lower Veitapu) folks. And Chirime over the range are cunning people. They will tell you one thing now and do the exact opposite of that next day.
So don’t expect major shifts in number sharing.
Fabianne will exhaust all his twos and threes while Mona and Mamando will most likely share their 2s and 3s depending on goes out first.
William will rely on good will from Jimmy’s voters as well as Inne and Mona with Mamando.
THE REAL POWER BROKERS.
In my opinion, I would conclude by pay close attention to the Top 20, which is the bottom 10 of the current Top 10.
These are the candidates from position 11 through to 20.
If anyone is to make some serious bets, sit back and assess the numbers that is been locked with the 11th-20th candidates.
Reason I say this is because apart from the bottom end candidates which will go first, the 11th-20th placed candidates will be the ones pushing the candidates above them up or down.
Alex will collect across Goilalas 3LLGs. So will Bruce who most likely will rise as well.
I expect Inne to either make it or break it for William but knowing William collected all across the 3LLGs and was labelled “Mr Steady Climber Samb” I will expect him to collect still.
LAST MAN STANDING.
Alex will give William a run for his Money.
AFTER COUNT 31 – FANE-TGM – WOITAPE LLG – BY ELECTION GOILALA OPEN.
1. ALEX HOEM ROBERT – 1816 [NATIONAL ALLIANCE]
2. MATHEW POIA – 1626 [INDEPENDENT]
3. FABIANNE INNE – 1339 [INDEPENDENT]
4. JOHN MONA – 1263 [PEOPLE’S NATIONAL CONGRESS]
5. PETER NOMAI -1125 [INDEPENDENT]
6. RAYMOND KOPA – 1007 [INDEPENDENT]
7. BRUCE MAMANDO – 762 [INDEPENDENT]
8. PETER ELLISON – 604 [INDEPENDENT]
9. WILLIAM SAMB – 575 [PANGU]
10. LAWRENCE IVORO – 402 [INDEPENDENT]
11. BONIFACE EVE – 399 [INDEPENDENT]
12. FELIX KOGA – 316 [INDEPENDENT]
*** Note the rise of John Mona and Bruce Mamando with Felix Koga.
This is their turf and as such they rise. John Zamoro, Titus Girau, John Kiar with other table warmers are been slowly pushed out.
The guys who are consist in their Top 10 journey are Alex Hoem, Mathew Poia and William Samb. It seems these guys will see the end part of the game and decide the fate of the new MP for Goilala District .
This is the standing after the count of BOX 5 from Guari LLG. There are 3 LLGs in Goilala – Guari, Tapini and Woitape.
1. Alex Hoem (NA) 859 2. John Kia (IND) 311 3. Mathew Poia (IND) 293 4. Titus Girau (IND) 197 5. John Zamoro (IND) 181 6. William Samb (PANGU) 113
Counting will start again today at 8am and end at 12 for lunch and resume at 1pm to 4pm before night shift takes over for 6pm to 11pm rooster.
As updates become available, we will keep this Blog updated.
Politically, I cannot grade myself up in the high or rather top end of the scale. Hence my comments and opinions must not be seen as accurate and absolute. Obviously I’m just a minor, trying to make an impression at this arena.
My Top 10 candidates after the First Preference Vote count will be as follows:
1. Peter Nomai 2. Alex Hoem Robert 3. Bruce Mamando 4. Matilda Koma 5. Cyprian Mang 6. Mathew Poia 7. Jimmy Gulolo 8. William Samb 9. John Mona 10. Alphonse Hega
The 11th through to 20th placing will be taken up by Felix Gitai, Michael Stitt, Daniel Simana, Boniface Eve, Titus Girau, Alphonse Moroi, Peter Ellison, Raymond Rex Kopa, Fabianne Inne,
The other 11 unnamed here on my list are obviously on first round of elimination.
In the Tauwade speaking Goilala tribes, Peter Nomai stands tall amongst the other candidates. Tapini LLG has 7000 eligible voters hence Peter commands are very healthy support base. Raymond Kope and Peter Ellison will give Peter a good run but Nomai will edge out top ahead still.
In the Kunimaipa speaking Goilala tribes, Mathew Poia, Alphonse Moroi, Felix Gitai, Alex Hoem Robert, Titus Girau and John Jamoro will split and tear 4000 eligible voters amongst themselves. The survivor in this battle will be Alex Hoem Robert followed by Mathew Poia and Felix Gitai and Titus Girau and Alphonse Moroi lagging behind respectively. Mathew by this time around is reached him prime.
And Felix Gitai seem very much confined to the upper Kunimaipa section of Guari LLG. Titus Girau also is concentrated around the Jova Loloipa and Toloro area as well. Alphonse Moroi will have to perform a miracle to unsettle the popularity Alex Hoem is enjoying right now in the Lower Kunimaipa area.
With 14800 eligible voters at their disposal, I see William Samb giving Matilda, Jimmy Gulolo and Cyprian Mang with John Mona a head start.
The dark horse in Fuyuge battle is Bruce Mamando since this is where he has been basing out of, since coming to Goilala. Michael Stitt, Aphonse Hega, Fabiane Inne, Daniel Simana and Boniface Eve will make up the bottom end of this battle.
Bruce will give Matilda Koma and John Mona with William Samb a very good run for his money in this one. And if nature permits, Bruce can cause an upset in Woitape LLG.
Out of the 33 candidates contesting the Goilala Open seat left vacant by untimely death of our MP Daniel K Mona are 4 former Members of Parliament – Mathew Poia (10), Fabiane Inne (25), Camilo Eself (26) and Ajax Bia (39).
Included amongst the 33 is a lone female warrior in Mathilda Koma (13) who has contested the 2007 and 2012 NGEs consecutively.
Eight candidates out of 33 are New Kids on the Political scene – Titus Girau(15), John Mona (22), William Samb (24), Boniface Eve(27), Michael Stitt(34), Raymond Kopa(35), John Kopa(38), Bruce Mamando(41) and Felix Gitai(42).
The one thing that caught everyone by surprise was the inclusion of former Central Province Governor Alphonse Moroi (20) who lost the seat to incumbent Kila Haoda in the 2012 NGE.
Apart from the new kids on the block, political experience compounded by years of consistently contesting the Goilala Open seat every 5 years places this By Election as one of the hotly contested races to date.
SUSPECTS TO DEPART SO EARLY.
Upon completion of First Preference votes, expect some mass exclusion.
Out of the 17 Fuyuges contesting, am tipping close to 5 candidates exiting very early while 6 Tauwade candidates will see at least 3 shown the door early as well. 8 Gunimaipa candidates will witness only 3 exit early.
In total, at least 11 candidates will end up getting eliminated very early leaving only 22 behind.
Big collectors will be those candidates that put in a lot of effort, time and resources into campaigning right across Goilala District. 1. Matilda Koma
Matilda landed at Kokoda and walked through Chirime valley and ended up in Woitape. She flew back to Port Moresby and later returned to walk the Udaba valley and over the range into Auga Dilava, her home turf. Rumor has it she even visited some areas in Tapini and Guari LLGs via Mona Highway. Classic example of a No Pain, No Gain investment.
Entering Goilala has a businessman 10 years ago, Bruce played a “Friend To All, Enemy To None” role. He helped needy, and clothed the unfortunate. He provided a helping hand to those that requested for it directly or indirectly. Bruce used his own funds to fund and bring about vital services to Auga Dilava folks. Being from Hagen, Bruce knew where to get involved and he did. Revival Churches of PNG congregation provided a perfect mix for him and he grabbed it with both arms. Tolokuma Gold Mine provided Bruce a perfect fertile soil to sow his hard earned Kina. And come 2015 By Election, Bruce stands ready to rake in fairly well all across Goilala. But that is only if Goilalas forget their family ties over night.
3.Alex Hoem Robert.
As a strategic politician, Alex knew where to spend a fair bit of time. Woitape station provided Alex a good hunting ground for him. Alex spent close to 3 weeks in Woitape making friends to various Fuyuge speaking tribes from far across Woitape LLG. If Woitape LLG folks repent from their usual style of conning non Fuyuge candidates, Alex will reap what he sowed. Fuyuges are known for speaking two languages. One during the day and another in the night.
William and his Think Tank named themselves “Team Goilala.” And spoke a language that everyone wanted to hear. And they did that using their Team members status within their respective tribes and clan’s across the length and breath of Goilala. As icing on the cake, Papua New Guinea’s firebrand politician, Bulolo Open MP and Deputy Opposition Leader and Pangu Party Leader Honorable Sam Basil was invited to 5 rallies across the most populated LLG in Goilala – Woitape.
Woitape LLG has 14,800 eligible voters while Tapini LLG has 7000 followed by Guari at 4000. Only a fool with ignore Woitape LLG come political season.
Money speaks all languages. Been a businessman, Peter has the money to burn. Peter’s agents moved mountains and made their presence felt across Goilala. I will not be surprised to see Peter threaten the top 5 early.
BIG PRETENDERS. John Mona seem to have a lot of money especially when he is backed by Prime Minister of Papua New Guinea’s People National Congress Party. But with Matilda Koma, Boniface Eve, Bruce Mamando and Daniel Simana up against him, Mr Mona will have to wish for a smoother ride. Because he is not getting one.
Alphonse Moroi downgraded his status by registering to contest the Goilala open seat. Will his recent past work for or against him in this By Election? As is a known fact, when Moroi was Governor of Central Province, Goilala never was in his line of sight especially in the area of project findings. This fact will obviously haunt our former Governor.
Jimmy Gulolo was a dark horse in the recently contested 2012 NGE. But this was so because Jimmy was a member of the Revival Churches of PNG. Jimmy was a prayer loving, non smoking, wife loving and sober habit individual. Jimmy was also employed at TGM which gave him access to most of Goilala’s mobile population. After the 2012 NGE, and obviously loosing, Jimmy took a flip jump and has broke away from Revival Churches and everything else broke loose. Jimmy’s poster for 2015 By Election is bare. The poster does not have any writing on it except “TOP UP TASOL” written on it. Why such is so will have to be explained by Jimmy and co.