In the lead up to the Primary counts, I boldly stated Alex Hoem Robert will win Guari LLG, while Peter Nomai will win Tapini LLG with William Samb shooting into the front for Woitape LLG.
And it seems my political analytical skills have not let me down as yet.
Now we enter the business end, the maker or breaker end of power play.
It will be interesting to note that since most of the voting across Goilala in the Primaries followed Family Tree lines, blood lines, and language boundaries, it is believed, 2s and 3s will follow suit.
So if we look at the TOP 10, pay close attention to the number of Kunimaipa, Tauwades and Fuyuges making up the final cut.
We have 2 Guari LLG candidates, 3 Tapini LLG candidates and 5 Woitape LLG candidates.
Do we see a pattern already?
So for Guari LLG, is all of Mathew Poia’s 2s and 3s headed for Alex Hoem?
Looking back at the recent past, 2012 NGE had Alex burn out his 2s and 3s. None of them or only a few went to Mathew Poia when Alex was eliminated.
So are we expecting a payback come this By Election?
Tapini LLG is interesting. Raymond and Peter are literally from the same area – Kerau side. Their eye-to-eye conversation aspect is unknown to me but I’d confidently say, if Raymond is to be eliminated, expect Nomai to make a move up the ladder.
Woitape LLG is known the Political Power broker time and time again when Election season pops up. So I expect this to happen yet again.
Funny thing is, Auga Dila voters don’t like their fellow Udab Savo (Upper and Lower Veitapu) folks. And Chirime over the range are cunning people. They will tell you one thing now and do the exact opposite of that next day.
So don’t expect major shifts in number sharing.
Fabianne will exhaust all his twos and threes while Mona and Mamando will most likely share their 2s and 3s depending on goes out first.
William will rely on good will from Jimmy’s voters as well as Inne and Mona with Mamando.
THE REAL POWER BROKERS.
In my opinion, I would conclude by pay close attention to the Top 20, which is the bottom 10 of the current Top 10.
These are the candidates from position 11 through to 20.
If anyone is to make some serious bets, sit back and assess the numbers that is been locked with the 11th-20th candidates.
Reason I say this is because apart from the bottom end candidates which will go first, the 11th-20th placed candidates will be the ones pushing the candidates above them up or down.
Alex will collect across Goilalas 3LLGs. So will Bruce who most likely will rise as well.
I expect Inne to either make it or break it for William but knowing William collected all across the 3LLGs and was labelled “Mr Steady Climber Samb” I will expect him to collect still.
LAST MAN STANDING.
Alex will give William a run for his Money.
But Mamando is still the dark horse.