PANGU MAN RETAINS GOILALA SEAT – NGE2017

22gb_samb_declared
After the 28th exclusion, William Samb is the member for Goilala Open.

Box 11 – Mathew Poia was the decider for the race between Samb and Alex Hoem Robert.

Despite Robert collecting a good 1,105, Samb climbed 89 votes higher to 6,576.

The absolute majority was 5,664.

Samb was declared the legitimate member at 4:30pm this afternoon by RO Theodore Maia at the counting venue, Gordon Police gymnasium.

Runner up Robert was 4,752.

This will be Samb’s first full 5-year term.

He won the by-election after the passing of Daniel Mona in 2014.

He was member-elect for 18 months.

Samb was escorted to the venue this afternoon by his wife and two children.

Addressing the counting officials, security and media personnel on ground, Samb thanked everyone for the support and cooperation and the trust in him.

He asked for the cooperation of all other 29 candidates to bring service into the district.
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Samb hopes to continue the projects he undertook while in office.

Source: Samb Retains Goilala Seat

POWER OF LPV SYSTEMS LAYS IN 2s & 3s – GOILALA OPEN – NGE2017.

National General Election 2017 in Papua New Guinea, using the Limited Preferential Voting system has given PNG people 3 choices to elect their Parliamentary leader who will represent them in the House Of Parliament for the next 5 years.

To do what? Goilala people will find out after 5 years starting 2018.

For now, let’s look at Goilala Open and how the 21, 516 eligible voters has casted their votes amongst the 30 candidates that contested these NGE2017.

After completion of FIRST PREFERENCE VOTES, [First Choice], this is how the ladder looks.
FinalCount35NGE2017GoiOpenSitting MP and Pangu Party candidate William Samb sits at No 1 with a commanding 5,097 votes following by National Alliance Alex Hoem Robert on 2287, and People National Congress candidate Bruce Mamando on 2206, Gabriel Mavai, an Indepedent on 1999, and former Member of Parliament Mathew Poia on 1946.

Quality Check is currently underway, and Elimination process will kick in to enable the Officials to reach the Absolute Majority figure of 10, 758 + 1 to declare the new MP Elect for Goilala Open.

My article here will digest how the elimination process will help move the numbers from the eliminated candidates and distribute them amongst the Top 6 candidates whose current votes are in the 4-digit totals.
EliminationNGE2017GoiOpen
I have catogorised the Rankings into Zero, Double Digit, 3 Digit and 4-Digit groups.

Gilbert Goi did not get any votes [ZERO Category] and so he goes without giving anyone anything.

Out of the Double Digit category which has a total of 321 votes to share, Camilo Esef, Theophilo, Augustine Mark, Tapini Libe, Philip Maip, Tosip will give most of their 2s and 3s to William, Bruce, Gabriel Mavai. Matilda. Aelai and Kiar would have their 2s and 3s shared between Alex, Mona and Poia where as Oresi will have his 2s and 3s shared between Nomai, William and Gabriel Mavai.

After this Double Digit group gets eliminated, expect Poia, Alex, Nomai, John Mona, Bruce and William Samb to have changes made to their Total figures. I see Alex and William collecting heavily from these group.

The 3-digit group has 5,995 votes amongs them to distribute and this figure is big enough to make changes to the Rankings if dominated by one candidate.

As it is, this 5,996 votes wont be distributed to just one candidate. These 5,995 votes will go all angles.

Kaita, Didei, Kopa, Ellison and Kita will make changes to Nomai’s total figure, while Ita, Henry Ivoro and Koma, will push Bruce, Mona, William and  Alex further up.

Jawai, Goilala Aloysis, Heni and Gitai will have most of their 2s and 3s shared between Poia and Alex Hoem. Bruce did collect well in Guari so he stands to collect from these candidates as well.

After the removal of Double and 3-Digit groups, the 4-Digit group will be rearranged. This is how i see the Top 6 after everyone is eliminated.

1. WILLIAM SAMB
2. BRUCE MAMANDO
3. ALEX HOEM
4. MATHEW POIA
5. GABRIEL MAVAI
6. PETER NOMAI
7. JOHN MONA

John Mona will squeeze his way into the 4-Digit group, while Bruce will swap second place with Alex who will get to the 3rd spot. Poia will also sneek into the 4th place, pushing Mavai down to 5th spot. Nomai sticks to 6th place and Mona will settle in the 7th place.

BUSINESS END OF THE GAME.
The margin between No.1 and No.2 will still be in Thousand+ votes. No.1 will increase his total votes. Difference between No.2, No.3, No.4 will be very close.

VERDICT
By the time we are left with 7 candidates, the Absolute Majority figure would have come down to 8,000 votes.

In my opinion John Mona holds the key to unlocking the “WHO IS THE NEW MP FOR GOILALA” mystery.

May The People’s Choice Win this tense Battle.

ABSOLUTE MAJORITY FIGURE IS – 10, 758

There are 60 informal ballot papers from a total of 21378 ballot papers counted from the District”

-LOOPPNG-

This is a vital piece of information from LOOP PNG news article regarding Goilala District NGE2017.

From this information, we can work out how many ballot papers are ALIVE.

We will also work out what is the ABSOLUTE MAJORITY.

We will also work out what is the WINNING figure which will be ABSOLUTE MAJORITY figure + 1.

Now The MATH.

TOTAL BALLOT PAPERS COUNT MINUS TOTAL INFORMAL EQUALS TOTAL ALIVE BALLOT PAPERS.

21 516 [Total Ballot papers used] – 60 [Informal] = 21456[Total alive].

ABSOLUTE MAJORITY IS DERIVE BY DIVIDING TOTAL ALIVE BALLOT PAPERS BY 2.

21456/2 = 10, 728.

ABSOLUTE MAJORITY PLUS ONE is the Winning NUMBER.

10, 728 + 1 = 10, 729.

The Magic Number, as it stands now, is 10, 729. And after the completion of FIRST PREFERENCE counts, no candidate has collected that figure hence ELIMINATION PROCESS is needed to find the ABSOLUTE MAJORITY figure.

Note that as elimination process kicks in, the ABSOLUTE MAJORITY figure will decrease. As that is happening votes totals for candidates will increase, which as elimination go on, these two numbers – leading candidate total votes which is increasing and absolute majority figure which is decreasing is expected to meet somewhere.

Once and when these two Numbers meets, a Declaration will be made.

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I am waiting to get the Count 35 FULL LIST for 30 Candidates, and their placings on the Rankings Table.

Once I get that, I will then do a REVIEW of the FIRST PREFERENCE Votes and also points out how the 2s and 3s will move and hopefully using that information, point out who the new MP for Goilala would be. [in my opinion].
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TROPIC AIR FLIES GOILALA BALLOT BOXES INTO PORT MORESBY – TODAY.

BREAKING: GOILALA OPEN BALLOT BOXES GETS FLOWN INTO PORT MORESBY TODAY.
Ballot Boxes - Flies to Pom

Confirmation from Woitape using the VSAT phone and Tapini [photo credit to Father Casmiro Kito – local priest from Tapini’s Catholic Church] and via social media posting has it that Goilala Open ballot boxes which were flown into Tapini station from the 3 LLGs after polling today is been flown into Port Moresby using one of the airlines operating out of Port Moresby.

Counting is confirmed to be held at Gordons Police barracks.

PEACEFUL POLLING IN GOILALA – JUST NAMES MISSING.

As of 2pm today 2nd of July 2017, polling across Goilala’s 3 LLGs – Tapini, Guari and Woitape are either underway, or has winded down or will be concluding tomorrow -3rd July 2017.

Tapini LLG.
Chopper at Tapini

Tapini LLG’s 10 wards has completed 98% of its polling as of 2pm today. Pilitu 1 and Pilitu2, Jova Loloipa, Tapini urban, Ivani Ward 1 has completed their polling as of yesterday. This also include Ward 5 which is Kerau and Lavavai villages. Ivani Ward 2 and Ward 3 completed their polling today. Polling team extraction is expected to start for outter wards like Ward 2, 3 and 4. While Jova Loloipa and Pilitu 1 & 2 should have had their team returning into Tapini station today via road.

Guari LLG.

Guari Station
Guari Station

Guari LLG’s 4 Wards is believed to have completed their polling as of yesterday. Most of the teams have started moving towards Guari station where the extraction if expected to happen. Calling into Omu and Rupila ran out unanswered. We will continue to follow up to ensure this is confirmed and if polling teams has been extracted.

Woitape LLG

Woitape - From Hiri Moare Mountain
Woitape Station

Woitape LLG’s 9 wards got their teams dropped off as of Thursday 29th June 2017. Only ward 1 and ward 2 which is in Chirime got dropped off today – 2nd July 2017. The reason for the delay in dropped chirime teams off was primarily due to bad weather. With the drop of Chirime teams done, most of the teams according to Sources in Kosipe, Woitape, Tolokuma and Ononge, Kambisea and Yongai are slowing making their way back towards Woitape station or towards extraction points.

TGM polling team is at Mondo today. They should reach TGM this afternoon. Fane polling team is also in Belavista today. They make their way into Fane and conduct polling tomorow. Kodige also confirmed their team will be winding down end of tomorrow.

Kosipe source confirmed polling team is in Tanipai today. Team will reach Kosipe today and tomorrow should see polling conducted in Kosipe. And walk over to Yeme.

Ward 7 and Ward 8 also had their teams dropped off last week so polling teams should be heading back towards Ononge station and Kambisea respectively for extraction hopefully starting tomorrow.

Ward 1 and 2 in Chirime hopefully will complete their polling before Wednesday 5th July 2017. Should any changes happen inbetweeen, we will keep all updated.

NAMES MISSING ON COMMON ROLL – PEOPLE TURNED AWAY.
One o the major frustrations out of this 2017 NGE in Goilala is that most eligible voters were turned away because they did not have their names listed on the common roll.

It is unknown whose fault is it that such is the case. Is this the fault of PNG Electoral Commission and their Update teams? Or is this the fault of the people who are supposed to check on the common roll to ensure their names are registered?

Either way, lets hope some solution is drawn out for this chaos and that solution is implemented by concern stakeholders and State Agencies.